Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic 10
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
20 Saint Louis 96.0%   9   24 - 7 12 - 4 24 - 7 12 - 4 +13.1      +5.3 53 +7.8 15 61.3 302 +11.2 33 +11.7 2
35 Temple 100.0%   6   24 - 7 13 - 3 24 - 7 13 - 3 +10.6      +8.1 22 +2.5 103 68.6 134 +12.8 20 +13.8 1
53 La Salle 0.7%   21 - 12 9 - 7 21 - 12 9 - 7 +8.2      +3.3 87 +4.9 43 72.2 71 +6.0 86 +6.7 8
57 St. Bonaventure 100.0%   13   20 - 11 10 - 6 20 - 11 10 - 6 +8.1      +5.2 54 +2.8 93 63.7 264 +7.2 71 +7.1 5
61 Xavier 84.5%   10   21 - 12 10 - 6 21 - 12 10 - 6 +7.7      +3.2 92 +4.6 53 71.6 76 +9.0 51 +8.6 3
62 Saint Joseph's 13.0%   20 - 13 9 - 7 20 - 13 9 - 7 +7.5      +5.7 43 +1.9 122 66.5 195 +6.9 75 +7.0 6
65 Dayton 19.9%   20 - 12 9 - 7 20 - 12 9 - 7 +7.4      +6.8 29 +0.6 150 65.5 221 +6.8 76 +7.3 4
78 Massachusetts 5.5%   22 - 11 9 - 7 22 - 11 9 - 7 +6.4      +2.1 118 +4.3 57 86.1 3 +7.4 70 +6.7 7
111 Richmond 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 9 16 - 16 7 - 9 +4.1      +4.5 62 -0.4 178 63.4 270 +3.4 124 +3.1 10
114 Duquesne 0.0%   15 - 15 7 - 9 15 - 15 7 - 9 +3.7      +3.3 88 +0.5 156 72.5 62 +4.2 108 +4.4 9
151 Charlotte 0.0%   13 - 17 5 - 11 13 - 17 5 - 11 +1.3      -1.7 225 +3.0 88 72.2 70 +1.6 147 0.0 11
167 George Washington 0.0%   10 - 21 5 - 11 10 - 21 5 - 11 -0.1      -0.4 183 +0.3 164 62.9 275 -1.3 186 0.0 12
215 Rhode Island 0.0%   7 - 24 4 - 12 7 - 24 4 - 12 -2.8      +0.4 160 -3.2 266 70.8 93 -5.3 253 -1.8 13
265 Fordham 0.0%   10 - 19 3 - 13 10 - 19 3 - 13 -6.0      -5.2 291 -0.8 197 70.3 103 -2.4 203 -3.7 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 2.0 100.0
Temple 1.0 100.0
La Salle 5.0 100.0
St. Bonaventure 3.0 100.0
Xavier 3.0 100.0
Saint Joseph's 5.0 100.0
Dayton 5.0 100.0
Massachusetts 5.0 100.0
Richmond 9.0 100.0
Duquesne 9.0 100.0
Charlotte 11.0 100.0
George Washington 11.0 100.0
Rhode Island 13.0 100.0
Fordham 14.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Saint Louis 12 - 4 100.0
Temple 13 - 3 100.0
La Salle 9 - 7 100.0
St. Bonaventure 10 - 6 100.0
Xavier 10 - 6 100.0
Saint Joseph's 9 - 7 100.0
Dayton 9 - 7 100.0
Massachusetts 9 - 7 100.0
Richmond 7 - 9 100.0
Duquesne 7 - 9 100.0
Charlotte 5 - 11 100.0
George Washington 5 - 11 100.0
Rhode Island 4 - 12 100.0
Fordham 3 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis
Temple 100.0% 100.0
La Salle
St. Bonaventure
Xavier
Saint Joseph's
Dayton
Massachusetts
Richmond
Duquesne
Charlotte
George Washington
Rhode Island
Fordham


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 96.0% 0.0% 96.0% 9   0.6 2.0 6.7 19.2 34.8 25.3 7.1 0.3 4.1 96.0%
Temple 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 6   0.3 3.3 27.7 44.7 19.9 3.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.7%
St. Bonaventure 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.2 7.0 47.3 44.6 0.9
Xavier 84.5% 0.0% 84.5% 10   0.0 1.1 11.9 38.5 28.8 4.0 0.0 15.6 84.5%
Saint Joseph's 13.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0 1.2 7.3 4.3 0.2 87.0 13.0%
Dayton 19.9% 0.0% 19.9% 0.2 4.9 12.6 2.2 0.0 80.1 19.9%
Massachusetts 5.5% 0.0% 5.5% 0.2 2.7 2.4 0.2 94.5 5.5%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 96.0% 0.4% 95.8% 57.0% 19.7% 10.1% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5%
Temple 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 56.4% 21.8% 6.9% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
La Salle 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 27.7% 10.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Xavier 84.5% 4.0% 82.5% 30.6% 7.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 13.0% 12.0% 6.8% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 19.9% 15.1% 12.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 5.5% 5.3% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlotte 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.2 0.3 11.0 60.3 25.8 2.5 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 4.0 0.5 15.3 68.6 14.9 0.7 0.0
2nd Round 92.1% 1.8 7.9 31.0 39.5 18.2 3.2 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 49.3% 0.6 50.7 38.7 9.5 1.1 0.1
Elite Eight 20.0% 0.2 80.0 18.6 1.4 0.0
Final Four 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.8 0.1
Final Game 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1 0.0
Champion 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7